Executive Summary

Q1 2025 distributable performance softened sequentially on lower oil and gas volumes and still-depressed gas prices; monthly distributions trended from $0.4483 (Jan) to $0.4395 (Feb) to $0.3012 (Mar), with March also including a $400k settlement benefit .
Results versus Wall Street: S&P Global shows no consensus EPS or revenue for SBR; therefore no formal beat/miss can be assessed (consensus unavailable; see Estimates Context).
Mix and pricing drivers: quarter’s distribution months reflected underlying Oct–Dec 2024 production; oil prices were relatively stable (~~$69–$70/bbl), while gas remained weak (~~$1.86–$1.99/Mcf), and volumes fell into March, driving the step-down in payout .
Near-term stock catalysts: (i) commodity price trajectory (notably gas), (ii) monthly distribution prints, (iii) ad valorem tax seasonality normalizing post-Q1, and (iv) regulatory costs borne by operators (e.g., methane fee) that could indirectly affect net proceeds .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Settlement recovery: March distribution included $400,000 from a TGNR settlement tied to unpaid royalties discovered during a revenue audit; this was an incremental cash tailwind .
Stable oil pricing QoQ: Average oil prices received in Jan–Mar distributions were roughly steady ($67.70–$69.88/bbl), buffering some volume pressure .
Lower ad valorem in February vs prior year: ~$115k was deducted in Feb vs ~$384k a year earlier, marginally supporting distributable cash in that month .

Selected quote:

“This month’s distribution is slightly lower than the previous month’s primarily due to a decrease in oil and gas production, partially offset by an increase in the price of oil and gas.” (Feb release) .

What Went Wrong

Volume declines into March: Net-to-trust sales fell to 45,827 bbl oil and 1,044,259 Mcf gas in the March distribution (vs Feb: 68,827 bbl and 1,444,799 Mcf), materially reducing the payout .
Persistently weak natural gas prices: Gas realized ~$1.86–$1.99/Mcf across the quarter’s distribution months; the 10-K highlights 2024 average gas at $1.88/Mcf, down sharply YoY due in part to warm weather and macro uncertainty .
Q1 tax seasonality: Ad valorem deductions pressured early-quarter distributions ($259k in Jan; $115k in Feb), a recurring Q1 headwind .

Financial Results

Quarterly P&L snapshot (USD; modified cash basis metrics for a royalty trust)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($)	$19.78M*	$19.42M*	$19.39M*
Net Income ($)	$19.07M*	$18.57M*	$18.15M*
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.31*	$1.27*	$1.24*
Net Income Margin (%)	95.7%*	95.0%*	93.1%*
EBIT Margin (%)	95.7%*	98.0%*	93.1%*

YoY comparison

Metric	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($)	$20.76M*	$19.39M*
Net Income ($)	$19.92M*	$18.15M*
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.37*	$1.24*
Net Income Margin (%)	95.3%*	93.1%*

Consensus vs actual (Q1 2025)

Metric	Consensus	Actual
Revenue ($)	N/A	$19.50M (actual in S&P data table)
EPS ($)	N/A	$1.24*

Notes: Values retrieved from S&P Global.* S&P Global shows no consensus EPS or revenue for SBR in Q1 2025; revenue table includes an “actual” reference in S&P’s estimates dataset without a published consensus.

KPIs – monthly distribution detail (reflects underlying production timing)

KPI	Jan 2025 Dist.	Feb 2025 Dist.	Mar 2025 Dist.
Distribution per Unit ($/unit)	$0.448330	$0.439510	$0.301230
Oil Volumes (bbl, net to trust)	76,247	68,827	45,827
Gas Volumes (Mcf, net to trust)	1,617,815	1,444,799	1,044,259
Avg Oil Price ($/bbl)	$67.70	$69.88	$69.44
Avg Gas Price ($/Mcf)	$1.61	$1.99	$1.86
Notable Items	Ad valorem: $259k deducted	Ad valorem: $115k deducted	$400k settlement included

Segment breakdown: Not applicable (single-class royalty interests).

Guidance Changes

SBR does not issue formal financial guidance; distributions are a function of received royalty cash flows, less expenses.

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Corporate guidance	N/A	None	None	N/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

SBR does not host quarterly earnings calls; themes reflect disclosures from monthly 8-K/press releases and the FY2024 10-K.

Topic	Q-2 (Q3 2024)	Q-1 (Q4 2024)	Current (Q1 2025)	Trend
Commodity prices	2024 avg gas price dropped to $1.88/Mcf YoY; oil averaged $77.04/bbl	Oil steady through fall; gas oversupply pressured prices into 4Q	Oil ~flat QoQ; gas weak ($1.86–$1.99/Mcf) in Jan–Mar distributions	Neutral oil, weak gas
Volumes	—	Higher production noted in Nov release (Aug oil/gas higher vs prior month)	Volumes sequentially declined into March distribution, lowering payout	Negative
Taxes/seasonality	—	Ad valorem deductions seasonally elevated in late year; Nov noted	Q1 deductions: $259k (Jan), $115k (Feb)	Seasonal headwind fading after Q1
Legal/settlements	—	—	$400k TGNR settlement included in March distribution	One-time positive
Regulatory/methane fee	—	10-K notes EPA methane fee effective for 2024 emissions; cost borne by operators could affect proceeds	Same	Potential medium-term overhang via operators

Management Commentary

“This month’s distribution is slightly lower than the previous month’s primarily due to a decrease in oil and gas production, partially offset by an increase in the price of oil and gas.” (Feb 7, 2025) .
“The March distribution includes a $400,000 settlement payment… relating to unpaid royalties… discovered during Sabine’s ongoing revenue audit.” (Mar 7, 2025) .
FY2024 context: “The average price received by the Trust in 2024 on natural gas volumes sold of $1.88 per Mcf represented a decrease from $3.52 per Mcf in 2023… Oil prices stayed fairly constant throughout 2024.” .

Q&A Highlights

No earnings call or Q&A for Q1 2025; SBR communicates via monthly 8-K/press releases and periodic SEC filings (e.g., 10-K) -.

Estimates Context

S&P Global shows no consensus for Primary EPS or Revenue for Q1 2025; hence no beat/miss assessment is possible. The S&P dataset reflects an actual revenue figure for the quarter but no published Street consensus. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Distributions in Q1 trended lower on volume declines and soft gas prices; watch monthly prints for inflection as volumes normalize post-winter and ad valorem seasonality recedes .
March’s $400k settlement is a one-off tailwind; do not extrapolate to run-rate distributions .
Gas price sensitivity remains high; a sustained recovery in Henry Hub would likely translate quickly into higher monthly distributions (lagged by receipts) .
Regulatory headwinds (EPA methane fee; tightening NSPS methane/VOC rules) impact operators’ cost structures and could modestly pressure net proceeds over time .
No formal guidance or consensus coverage: trading will remain driven by commodity tape, monthly volume/price updates, and tax seasonality rather than quarterly “beats.”
Longer-term, diversified basin exposure and ongoing audits (as evidenced by TGNR settlement) support value capture, but depletion and operator capital allocation remain structural constraints - .

Footnotes:

Financial statement and estimate figures marked with an asterisk (*) are values retrieved from S&P Global.

SABINE ROYALTY TRUST (SBR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary